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Monday, November 20, 2017

What is a 'Cryptocurrency'

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Monday, October 16, 2017

$50,000+ Bitcoin Could Happen if This Isn’t a Bubble But an S-Curve

$50,000+ Bitcoin Could Happen if This Isn’t a Bubble But an S-Curve
Countless experts and pundits, including Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, have proclaimed that Bitcoin is in a massive bubble right now, and it certainly could be. Yet these “experts” fail to consider one possibility that some in the Bitcoin community are beginning to suspect: mass adoptionmay be imminent.

Permanently high plateau

First, let’s get something out of the way. Yes, with every bubble there are people who insist that it really isn’t a bubble. It’s “the new normal” or “a new paradigm.” Perhaps the most infamous such example is that of Yale economist Irving Fisher. At the height of the 1929 stock market bubble, just before the crash, a jubilant Fisher proclaimed:
“Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.”
He couldn’t have been more wrong.

Bubbles throughout history

History is replete with examples of financial bubbles that popped disastrously. Britain’s South Sea bubble came about in the early 1700s, when investors became convinced that the South Sea Company, which was given a monopoly on trade with South America, would produce enormous profits. Their hopes were dashed, and the entire economy shaken, when the bubble popped and the value of South Sea Company stock bottomed out.
The Mississippi bubble was caused when financier John Law convinced the French regent of a plan to pay off France’s massive debts. In 1716, Law’s Mississippi Company agreed to assume the entire French national debt in return for a complete monopoly on all trade and mineral wealth in France’s Louisiana territory.
Seeing no way to lose, and spurred to a frenzy by Law’s marketing, investors drove the price of Mississippi Company stock sky high. When Law realized the bubble had gotten out of hand, he tried to gradually deflate his stock price. Unfortunately, this resulted in a complete collapse of the company and wrecked the French economy.
Tulip mania is arguably the most famous bubble in history. In the 1630s, Dutch traders drove the price of tulip bulbs to absurd levels. As prices kept rising, retail investors got involved in futures trading, betting on the price continuing to rise. At the bubble’s peak, the price of a single tulip bulb was equal to the price of a riverfront home in Amsterdam.
Eventually the price stopped going up, people began to sell, and the price of tulip bulbs dropped to near zero. The panic was so severe that the Dutch government offered to buy underwater futures contracts for 10% of the contracts’ value, but continued price declines forced the government to withdraw its promise.

Recent bubbles

The two most famous bubbles of recent times are the dot-com bubble of the late-1990s/early-2000s and the housing bubble of the mid-2000s.
In the case of the dot-com bubble, people were so drawn to the potential of the Internet that they invested in any company with a “.com” in its name. Venture capital and over-subscribed IPOs loaded these companies with so much cash that they didn’t have to turn a profit right away.
Often with no business model at all, dot-com companies believed that if they attracted enough users, they would eventually find a way to profit. They were wrong, and the vast majority of them went bankrupt, tanking the value of the NASDAQ index.
The recent housing bubble was triggered by government policies and loose credit, enabling people to buy houses that were far beyond their financial means. Seeing the demand, banks created derivatives which gave investors more ways to get exposure to the growing housing sector. These derivatives added more fuel to the housing boom, as banks saw they could make outsized profits so long as the market continued to rise.
Lenders loosened credit restrictions even further, and anybody that said they wanted to buy a house was given a mortgage. Virtually no questions were asked and no documentation required. Such mortgages were labelled “NINJA” loans: no job, no income, no assets were required to borrow money.
Eventually buyers began defaulting on their mortgages en masse, causing a massive drop in housing prices and bringing about the Great Recession.

On S-Curves--why it really might be different this time

Diffusionofideas
The adoption of new technologies over the last century has resembled an S-Curve. As the technology is introduced, it takes time for people to learn about it and realize its potential. Once public awareness reaches a critical mass and the technology is perfected, adoption occurs extremely rapidly, resulting in exponential growth. Finally, once everybody has adopted the technology, the curve flattens out again.

Key questions and bubble follow-up

Below is a picture of the Bitcoin market since late 2013. See how even the “massive” bubble of November/December 2013 is dwarfed by the current one?
Bitcoin November/December 2013What happens if today’s Bitcoin bubble isn’t a bubble at all, in the traditional sense? What happens if we are actually on the cusp of that massive near-vertical adoption uptake? A look back at the dot-com bubble and the housing bubble might shed some light on current circumstances.
On March 2, 2015, the NASDAQ index hit an all-time high, surging above the 5,000 mark as it finally surpassed its peak price, reached at the top of the dot-com bubble. Today, the index stands at 6,449. It took 15 years, but the markets fully recovered, eventually reaching new highs.
Likewise the Case-Shiller index of housing prices is approaching its pre-bubble heights. The index stopped at 198 in 2006 and is now back to 194. As the economy continues to improve, it’s likely that home prices will continue to rise above their 2006 peak.

What’s the difference?

Why did the South Sea bubble, Mississippi bubble, and Dutch tulip mania all eventually go to zero, never to rise again? Why did Internet companies enjoy a new resurgence and eclipse past bubble levels? Why do housing prices seem to be following the same path?
More important, what does all this have to do with Bitcoin?
It’s simple. The bubbles of old were driven by hype, with nothing of value actually backing them. A tulip bulb has zero intrinsic value, and absolutely no potential to become something more. The South Sea company was backed by a worthless monopoly, since South America was under Spanish control. The Mississippi company never could exploit the wealth of the new world, because unlike Spanish territories, Louisiana had no gold or silver to export.
Internet companies like Amazon, Facebook, PayPal and the others are completely different. The Internet offers unmatched potential for growth, with world-changing consequences. Yes, things got overheated in the early 2000s, but prices recovered and the upward trajectory was renewed. Housing prices went out of control in the mid-2000s, but as the population grows, housing is always in demand. A house represents a real asset with real value that meets a real need.
Bitcoin represents a sea change in the way business is conducted on the Internet. It is the world’s first decentralized, non state controlled, truly global currency. Bitcoin is a promising monetary technology that seems more apt to follow the path of an S-Curve than that of a boom-and-bust.
Bitcoin could still be overpriced for this stage of its development. It could be in a bubble that deflates before rising again in a few years. But if Bitcoin is what I think it is, then at some point (maybe even now) we will rapidly shoot up that S-Curve to prices that are presently unimaginable.

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Sunday, October 15, 2017

Cryptogloassary

Because I see a lot of new altcoin enthusiasts joining the crypto world, I made a simple glossary with crypto jargon. Do you miss anything? Don’t hesitate to add it as a comment (I will edit the post).

Address – A bitcoin address is essentially the same thing as your home address. It’s the location from which you would receive, send or hold your currency. These addresses generally manifest in a long string of alphanumeric characters and will look something like:
1MhN5qfH1vgx9CLL17i3DK9D2gzrHR7dZF
A wallet address is the public portion of the two encrypted keys necessary for a holder to accept or verify a transaction.
Altcoin, the abbreviation for alternative coin, or alternate coin, or all blockchain projects and related currency that exist in addition to Bitcoin.
ASIC – Application Specific Integrated Circuit (ASIC)
An Application Specific Integrated Circuit (ASIC) is a computer chip created to perform one specific function, and only that function. Since mining of cryptocurrency data blocks can demand a lot of computer space and time, some miners set aside entire devices—or partition off a section of their computers—to do nothing but mining.
Bearish, a downward trend.
Bip – Bitcoin Improvement Proposals. A set of proposals that members of the bitcoin community have submitted to improve bitcoin. For example BIP0021 is a proposal to improve the bitcoin URI scheme.
Block is a part of the Blockchain and is usually associated with an encrypted hash with the previous block in the block.
Blockchain, very neatly explained by Nieuwsuur (or here), but in text: a decentralized database that maintains a data list that can not be manipulated.
BTC (฿). I do not intend to spell out all currencies, but Bitcoin is an exception.
Bullish, an upward trend.
Confirmations – Once a transaction is included in a block, it has “one confirmation”. As soon as another block is mined on the same blockchain, the transaction has two confirmations etc. Six or more confirmations is considered sufficient proof that a transaction cannot be reversed.
Core wallet, a wallet that contains the whole blockchain and most of the time delivers tools to give developers the ability to program in or on the blockchain.
Dapps aka applications written in the blockchain, which means it’s a decentralized application aka Dapp.
Difficulty – A network-wide setting that controls how much computation is required to find a proof-of-work.
Difficulty target – A difficulty at which all the computation in the network will find blocks approximately every 10 minutes.
Difficulty re-targeting – A network-wide re-calculation of the difficulty which occurs once every 2106 blocks and considers the hashing power of the previous 2106 blocks.
Electrum wallet, a light weight wallet to store coins. Doesn’t download the blockchain, but gets the information from a thirth party.
Encryption, data lock that can only be unlocked with a private key.
Exchange, sometimes called coinexchange, is the exchange office where buyers and sellers can trade in Bit and Altcoins. Examples are Litebit, BTCdirect, Kraken and Bittrex.
Fees – The sender of a transaction often includes a fee to the network for processing their requested transaction. Most transactions require a minimum fee of 0.5mBTC.
FOMO means Fear Of Missing Out. As the term suggests, the Bitcoin or an altcoin rises sharply in value and investors take steps without rationale – so emotion – because they are afraid to miss the boat.
FUD stands for Fear, Uncertainty & Doubt. In the world of crypto FUD means spreading fear, uncertainty or doubt about a certain blockchain project.
Genesis block – The first block in the blockchain, used to initialize the crypto-currency.
Hash, an encryption that can no longer be undone.
HODL, either hold, but then written wrong. Reportedly a Bitcointalk user wearing a drunk mood over his keyboard. HODL is currently jargon for long-term investor cryptocurrency trader. Nice acronym mentioned in the comments: Hold On Despite Loss.
ICO, Initial Coin Offering. A crowd sale that offers the opportunity to purchase digital coins from a new blockchain project.
Long – to be long on bitcoin (or any other coin); trading term that means buying, with the expectation to sell at a higher price in the future and realize a profit.
Miner, device validating the blockchain (transactions).
Mining reward, the reward that a miner receives for the computing power he delivers to check the nodes in the blockchain.
Mnemonic Phrase a fancy version of your private key, that is actually used to derive multiple private keys.
Network – A peer-to-peer network that propagates transactions and blocks to every bitcoin node on the network.
Public key, publicly accessible “key”, in crypto currency jargon your wallet.
Private key, the key to open your wallet.
Proof of Stake, verification of the blockchain is done by (wallet) adresses with a certain amount of coins. The more coins means the more authority and computing power for verifying the blockchain.
Proof of Work is roughly a method where blockchain(transactions) are verified with computing power.
Reward – An amount included in each new block as a reward by the network to the miner who found the proof-of-work solution. It is currently 25BTC per block.
Satoshi is the smallest part of a bitcoin. 1 Satoshi = 0.00000001 ฿.
Short – trading term; Shorting bitcoin means selling first (before buying), with the expectation to buy the stock back at a lower price and realize a profit.
Transaction – In simple terms, a transfer of bitcoins from one address to another. More precisely, a transaction is a signed data structure expressing a transfer of value. Transactions are transmitted over the bitcoin network, collected by miners and included into blocks, made permanent on the blockchain.
Wallet, a digital wallet on cryptocurrency. Examples are JaxxExodus and the Gulden Wallet.
51% Attack – When more than half of the computing power of a cryptocurrency network is controlled by a single entity or group, this entity or group may issue conflicting transactions to harm the network, should they have the malicious intent to do so.

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Top stocks, companies, and cryptocurrencies to invest in for the blockchain boom

How to Invest in Cryptocurrency

Blockchain technology has been heating up in the past several months, thanks in large part to the surge in Bitcoin's price since early May. The cryptocurrency skyrocketed from less than $1,000 in March to an all-time high of $4,440 on August 14.
Given this meteoric rise, it's no surprise that investors are clamoring to figure out how to break into the Bitcoin marketplace. But there are many other cryptocurrencies (such as Ethereum) and blockchain companies on the stock exchange where investors can funnel their money.
However, investing in a cryptocurrency is different than investing in a regular stock. When you invest in a company, you're buying shares of that company and essentially own an extremely small percentage of it. When you invest in Bitcoin or Ethereum, you receive digital tokens that serve different purposes. With Bitcoin, you get decentralized currency that also happens to be partially anonymous. With Ethereum, you get a piece of the power that runs decentralized apps and smart contracts.
Trading cryptocurrencies occurs on dedicated exchanges. Larger exchanges like GDAX, Kraken, Bitfinex, and Gemini typically offer solid volume to trade cryptocurrencies through bank transfers or credit cards. Coinbase is also an option that is growing in popularity thanks to its ease of use and a built-in wallet. But the trade off here is comparatively higher fees.
Poloniex is another exchange that offers more than 80 cryptocurrencies for trading, but the catch is you can only use Bitcoins or other cryptocurrencies to fund these trades.

Top Cryptocurrencies to Invest In

There are several paths one can take when deciding in which cryptocurrencies to invest, but a handful of these have risen to the top as the most popular options for investment: 
  1. Bitcoin: There's a reason you've heard the name Bitcoin all over the financial news space. The price of the cryptocurrency has increased nearly 8x in the last year as of the time of this writing. Moreover, the original design of Bitcoin ensured that there would never be more than 21 million in existence (and math indicates we'll never actually reach that number). This means Bitcoin is not subject to inflation.
  2. Ethereum: Arguably the second-most well-known cryptocurrency, the price of Ethereum has exploded more than 3000% in the last year. Even with that growth, the price remains at less than 1/10th of Bitcoin, so it could be a better value play for investors who don't have the resources to 
  3. Litecoin: Litecoin has risen more than 2000% in the last year. The peer-to-peer digital currency acts in a complementary way to Bitcoin, and its comparatively low price makes it a solid entry point for new crypto investors.
  4. Monero: Think of Monero as a second level of privacy and anonymity beyond what something like Bitcoin offers. The price exploded in 2016, and the market cap swelled from $5 million to $185 million thanks in large part to the cryptocurrency's adoption by the major darknet market AlphaBay. Law enforcement shut down AlphaBay in July 2017.
  5. Bitcoin Cash: In August 2017, the Bitcoin blockchain spun off a more nimble iteration called Bitcoin Cash. It's essentially identical to Bitcoin, but with the important distinction that it has more block size capacity. The price of the cryptocurrency has already doubled from $300 to more than $600 as of this writing. And if you owned Bitcoin before the split, then you received an equal amount of Bitcoin Cash. There are approximately 16.5 million units of each in existence, which makes Bitcoin Cash the third-most valuable cryptocurrency in the world with a market cap of more than $10 billion.
  6. Ripple: Ripple is a protocol that permits near instantaneous transaction settlements and reduces transaction fees to mere cents. Some VCs and even several major banks (such as Bank of America, UBS, and BBVA) have implemented Ripple into their systems. The key difference from Bitcoin, though, is that it is centralized and pre-mined.
  7. ZCash: ZCash operates in a manner similar to Monero. The price of the cryptocurrency surged in June 2017 to nearly $400, but has since leveled off to the sub-$300 range.
genesis mining bitcoin ethereumGenesis Mining

How to Invest in Blockchain Technology

Blockchain technology powers Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, but there are many ways to invest in blockchain tech without pouring your money into these digital currencies. The first is to look into blockchain startups (we'll detail more in the next section).
The second option is crowdfunding platforms, as blockchain startups in their infancy will often look into crowdfunding to get off the ground. A platform called BnkToTheFuture allows investors to place their money into several Bitcoin and blockchain startups.
Another possibility is to invest in the initial coin offerings, or ICOs, of new blockchain projects. Blockchain companies issue cryptocurrencies or other tokens through ICOs in order to raise capital. There is a bit more risk in this route, as this new form of crowdfunding is still rather unregulated, but the returns reported thus far have been stellar.

Top Blockchain Stocks & Companies to Invest In

The following six blockchain stocks and companies have become popular investment choices:
  1. BTCS: With a market cap of more than $7 million and shares trading around 14 cents as of this writing, BTCS is a solid entry point for blockchain investors. It's the first blockchain-centric public company in the U.S. and was one of the first entrants into the digital currency space.
  2. Global Arena Holding: Global Arena Holding acquires patents related to blockchain tech, but it's also working on applying that tech to ATMs. If successful, this could have major implications for the everyday consumer.
  3. DigitalX: DigitalX developed a mobile product called AirPocket that assists with secure cross-border payments from more than 30,000 locations in 14 countries, primarily in North and South America.
  4. BTL Group: The Vancouver-based company offers blockchain solutions across several spaces, including banking and fantasy sports.
  5. Coinsilium Group: This London-based company invests in other blockchain startups and helps develop them. It was also the first recognized IPO for a blockchain tech company.
  6. First Bitcoin Capital: This company focuses on acquiring Bitcoin startups and funding them to develop both hardware and software for the cryptocurrency.

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Cryptocurrency: 5 Ways To Profit From A Market Crash



Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own.
There are many ways to profit if crypto markets crash. Shutterstock
Recently, a range of analysts have weighed in on whether cryptocurrencies are in a bubble.
There is certainly cause for concern, as the total market capitalization (market cap) of these digital assets has surged from less than $18 billion to nearly $180 billion this year, according to CoinMarketCap
However, these currencies have been suffering some weakness lately, as many have dropped significantly from their peaks.
[Ed note: Investing in cryptocoins or tokens is highly speculative and the market is largely unregulated. Anyone considering it should be prepared to lose their entire investment.]
How To Profit
Should the crypto markets crash, there are several ways that investors can profit.
As for which approaches are best, investors will need to decide for themselves.
This choice will depend largely on their risk tolerance, as well as where they believe the markets will go next, said Charles Hayter, co-founder and CEO of digital currency platform CryptoCompare.
This article reviews five specific methods that investors can use. 
Investors can benefit significantly from buying the dip. Shutterstock
1)Buy The Dip
Buying the dip can generate compelling returns.
However, in practice, pulling this off effectively may be easier said than done.
Using this strategy successfully requires an investor to time the market, something that many market experts have described as very challenging.
"Buying a dip in a crash can be difficult," emphasized Yazan Barghuthi, project lead at blockchain company Jibrel Networks, "because when do you know it has bottomed out?" 
He noted that after peaking in 2013, Bitcoin prices gradually lost value for about two years.
Petar Zivkovski, COO of leveraged digital currency platform Whaleclub, also spoke to the caveats surrounding this particular strategy.
"Buying the dip only works in a general bull market," he said. "If the global trend reverses, buying the dip is useless." 
Zivkovski further warned traders against relying on the assumption that Bitcoin will always rise in value. 
Pinpointing the best opportunities can prove quite helpful. Shutterstock
2)Pinpoint Strong Opportunities
Investors should keep in mind that even if the broader cryptocurrency market crashes, some of these digital assets could hold up very well.
Marshall Swatt, founder and CTO of Coinsetter, which was acquired by Kraken, commented on this situation. 
"Just like the NASDAQ bubble, there will be companies and tokens that go on to be very successful, perhaps a future Amazon," he stated. 
Vinny Lingham, CEO of Civic, suggested that investors "find quality coins with teams you can trust to execute and weather the storm" and then hold. 
Swatt offered specific suggestions for evaluating tokens, advising that investors look for digital currencies that have a solid foundation and compelling business model.
Market crashes offer numerous opportunities. Shutterstock
3)Hold On For Dear Life
One way to weather a crash in digital currencies is to Hold On For Dear Life, a strategy that many in the industry refer to simply as HODL.
Basically, this means buying cryptocurrencies and holding on to them for a substantial period of time, regardless of how much the digital assets fluctuate in value.
Barghuthi described this approach as a "classic," stating that "plenty of investors will probably use" it if the market crashes, said Barghuthi. 
While holding in this manner is certainly a viable strategy, investors who use it should stick to holding the top five cryptocurrencies by market cap, said Zivkovski.
4)Exiting To Fiat Currencies
Some traders suggest flocking to fiat currencies when crypto markets crash.
Crypto Asset Management, for example, frequently uses this approach when these digital assets decline, said Tim Enneking, the firm's managing director.
However, Swatt emphasized that using this strategy successfully may be easier said than done.
"Exiting to fiat requires that you be able to time the market, both when you exit and again when you return," he said. "The smartest strategy is to allocate money you can afford to put at risk, and then stick with your plan regardless of the variations in the market." 
5)Shorting Bitcoin
If done correctly, traders can generate very robust returns by shorting Bitcoin, an opportunity offered by many exchanges.
Bitfinex, Poloniex and Kraken all offer this functionality, noted Enneking.
However, shorting is a strategy for more sophisticated investors, asserted Swatt. This approach is very risky, he noted.
Before using any strategy in an effort to profit from a market crash, investors should be sure to perform their due diligence.
Disclosure: I own some bitcoin and ether.

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