Israel's new Iran policy: Sway Obama on Tehran talks
The latest International Atomic Energy Agency report was greeted with ennui by the Israeli media, deemed not especially exciting compared to the twists and turns of coalition talks or the tongue-lashing Prime Minister Ehud Olmert gave Defense Ministry official Amos Gilad.
But the political and security echelons' attitude to the report, which states that Iran has managed to accumulate a ton of enriched uranium and is heading quickly toward a nuclear bomb, is a different story. The report confirms the assumption, shared for some time by the intelligence services of Israel, the United States and Europe, that Iran is closer to the bomb, with mid-2010 as the likely date it will reach its goal.
Iran was a major topic of conversation between Defense Minister Ehud Barak, Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi, and U.S. senators John Kerry and Joe Lieberman on their recent visits to Israel.
From Israel's perspective, President Barack Obama is a key player in the Iranian drama. Although Obama has more urgent things on his agenda - first and foremost among them the rehabilitation of the U.S. economy - Iran will be his first major foreign-policy test. Israel regards Obama's decision to talk to Tehran about its nuclear program as a done deal. What it is trying to do, in a low-profile way, is to impact the way the Americans reach the point of dialogue.
In his lecture last week to senior IDF officers, Barak sketched the outlines of the Israeli approach in the coming months. Israel hopes that potential U.S.-Iranian talks will be relatively short-term, and harbors few illusions about a positive outcome.
When and if talks fail, Israel would expect the U.S. to head an international move for immediate and harsher sanctions, this time effectively involving Russia, China and India. The assumption is that Obama will find it easier than Bush to urge the world to pressure Iran, especially after he shows he has taken dialogue as far as it can go.
Israel would prefer for the Americans to condition their talks with Iran on freezing uranium enrichment during the talks.
The oversight system now allows reasonable follow-up on whether Tehran is meeting this condition. In the 15 years of Tehran's contacts with the international community, it has proven itself a master of deception and delay and Israel is concerned that the Iranians will use the dialogue as a feint, while steadily moving closer to a bomb.
But it is difficult to imagine Iran agreeing to this condition, similar to the one it rejected when the Bush administration proposed it.
And if all efforts fail? Barak told the cabinet yesterday that "Israel will take no option off the table." The commander of the Israel Navy, Maj. Gen. Eliezer Marom said in a rare statement yesterday: "An axis of evil coordinated between Iran, Syria, Hezbollah and Hamas will require Israel to wage a campaign against it that will require our best efforts and abilities."
The General Staff is divided about the practical chances of such a campaign if Israel goes it alone, without coordination with and assistance from the United States.
The Israeli statements illustrate that the Middle East is beginning to move according to a new schedule: elections in Iran and in Lebanon in June, U.S.-Iranian talks and perhaps sanctions. Attention in Israel is gradually being directed eastward and northward, toward the possibility of a renewed front with Hezbollah and perhaps even with Syria.
That is one of the main reasons the General Staff supports a cease-fire with Hamas in the south that would also include the release of kidnapped soldier Gilad Shalit. Israel is about to have more pressing problems.
By Amos Harel, Isreali newspaper
But the political and security echelons' attitude to the report, which states that Iran has managed to accumulate a ton of enriched uranium and is heading quickly toward a nuclear bomb, is a different story. The report confirms the assumption, shared for some time by the intelligence services of Israel, the United States and Europe, that Iran is closer to the bomb, with mid-2010 as the likely date it will reach its goal.
Iran was a major topic of conversation between Defense Minister Ehud Barak, Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi, and U.S. senators John Kerry and Joe Lieberman on their recent visits to Israel.
From Israel's perspective, President Barack Obama is a key player in the Iranian drama. Although Obama has more urgent things on his agenda - first and foremost among them the rehabilitation of the U.S. economy - Iran will be his first major foreign-policy test. Israel regards Obama's decision to talk to Tehran about its nuclear program as a done deal. What it is trying to do, in a low-profile way, is to impact the way the Americans reach the point of dialogue.
In his lecture last week to senior IDF officers, Barak sketched the outlines of the Israeli approach in the coming months. Israel hopes that potential U.S.-Iranian talks will be relatively short-term, and harbors few illusions about a positive outcome.
When and if talks fail, Israel would expect the U.S. to head an international move for immediate and harsher sanctions, this time effectively involving Russia, China and India. The assumption is that Obama will find it easier than Bush to urge the world to pressure Iran, especially after he shows he has taken dialogue as far as it can go.
Israel would prefer for the Americans to condition their talks with Iran on freezing uranium enrichment during the talks.
The oversight system now allows reasonable follow-up on whether Tehran is meeting this condition. In the 15 years of Tehran's contacts with the international community, it has proven itself a master of deception and delay and Israel is concerned that the Iranians will use the dialogue as a feint, while steadily moving closer to a bomb.
But it is difficult to imagine Iran agreeing to this condition, similar to the one it rejected when the Bush administration proposed it.
And if all efforts fail? Barak told the cabinet yesterday that "Israel will take no option off the table." The commander of the Israel Navy, Maj. Gen. Eliezer Marom said in a rare statement yesterday: "An axis of evil coordinated between Iran, Syria, Hezbollah and Hamas will require Israel to wage a campaign against it that will require our best efforts and abilities."
The General Staff is divided about the practical chances of such a campaign if Israel goes it alone, without coordination with and assistance from the United States.
The Israeli statements illustrate that the Middle East is beginning to move according to a new schedule: elections in Iran and in Lebanon in June, U.S.-Iranian talks and perhaps sanctions. Attention in Israel is gradually being directed eastward and northward, toward the possibility of a renewed front with Hezbollah and perhaps even with Syria.
That is one of the main reasons the General Staff supports a cease-fire with Hamas in the south that would also include the release of kidnapped soldier Gilad Shalit. Israel is about to have more pressing problems.
By Amos Harel, Isreali newspaper
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