The gathering storm

Wednesday, January 21, 2009
Shehzad Chaudhry

It is quite clear that the Indo-Pak jousting will continue till a new policy gets defined after the Indian elections. What gathers additionally on the horizon is even more disconcerting. What with the RAND study for the US Army engaging in a "long war"; and another sponsored by the US Joint Staff endeavouring to determine the most likely points of application of the US military in the future, pointing towards a nexus of Islamist threat in combination with a failed state of nuclear Pakistan that so scares the Americans.

The importance of what RAND says or what the US Joint Staff is sweating on can never be underplayed. The RAND guys are no neo-cons working on extravagant notions of re-carving the world; instead they are at the delivery end working out the combatant level logistic, operational and strategic details.

Pakistan has never been in a more critical security dilemma. Even the 1971 the loss of East Pakistan was not as dangerous in consequences as is the current and progressively deteriorating regional and global environment from Pakistan's perspective. Pakistan is in a bind on the extremists issue.

Amongst the few functioning institutions, the military chastened by their experience of the last nine years consider it wise to keep at a distance, while the foreign ministry is woefully short of effort to go beyond fire-fighting and superficial treatment of immediate sores. It neither has the time nor the inclination to dig deeper than the surface and address the inherent dangers to the state and the nation. In a paradox of comical proportions, neither is the state and government leadership getting an honest and well deliberated guidance from the bureaucracy. The compounding adversity thus continues to multiply, self generating and feeding into a bitter storm. The danger is that in a rapidly developing situation our embroilment in a day to day tit-for-tat may occlude the real threat far beyond our emergent attention.

Someone needs to watch the woods when the trees are getting counted with increasing regularity. That is where the need is to put people to institutional thinking. Without recourse to deliberate process of working out how the future might play out in an increasingly complex mix of internal, external and global dynamics, I am afraid President Obama would not be able to hand out a magic potion after the Jan 20 inauguration. When the adversities compound at such a large scale, tactical genius or any amount of diplomatic savvy delivers little. It shall have to be a recourse to the essential soul of the nation's make-up and her future direction. That will mean an indigenous response; self-evolved, self-considered and self-implemented. We must make Pakistan relevant to its people before we can take our case to anyone on the outside with any credibility. We need to work hard desperately in righting the wrongs within our societal structures – far more important than any other agenda.

Do we have a national plan to dissolve the extremist sentiment? I haven't seen or heard of an effort to include the influential religious clergy in any considerations. We haven't even noticed an effort to differentiate the external elements of influence from the home grown sentiment, since both shall need a different set of strategies to engage. What of the industry and business community? Have they stopped talking or have they all migrated along with their capital. Why isn't there series of non-stop meetings of all stake-holders in the trade, business and industrialist community with their relevant counterparts in the government to determine the way out in their most crucial area of economy and grant some relevance to this state in stress.

And finally, could the nation ask it's perhaps the most veritable institution, the military to lay out in clear terms, for the sake of neutralising damaging and opportunistic propaganda, its divorce from any principle of discreet sponsorship of "any" non-state outfit. Along with the institutions of the state, the military could focus on a combined appraisal of how to secure Pakistan's vital interests in an increasingly difficult environment. The state is in need of all hands; even though the military might wish to prove its non-intervening credentials, now perhaps is not the time. It should be able to bring the support of its organisational strength and institutional approach to deliberating issues of critical national importance in helping formulate the blue-print of recovery from a complex situation. The other national institutions too must act realistically to acknowledge limitations of intellectual capacity and organisational inadequacy, and work in consort with what the others may have to offer in terms of a combined national effort.

India is likely to continue to up the ante in terms of diplomatic pressure, enlivened by suitably spaced jingoistic support. It shall essentially be an effort to keep Pakistan embroiled in a meaningless banter and dissuade Pakistan from a steadied attention to the most important, hoping that Pakistan might implode from within under the weight of these compounding adversities. While we may joust tactically, our attention must only stay on what is in our supreme interest–keeping the woods in focus; these must include our long-term survival against internal dissention, and a stronger foundation for a more assured society relevant to itself and relevant to the world. All else will then fall in place despite the distractions. The challenge is enormous but not insurmountable. We only need to take the first step in earnest.


The writer is a retired air-vice marshal of the Pakistan Air Force and served as its deputy chief of staff. Email: shhzdchdhry@yahoo.com