PAKISTAN CAN DO THE JOB

The Obama administration well appreciates the critical importance of Afghanistan, Pakistan and by extension India to the security of the United States, NATO, Europe and the region.   More over, its most senior officials have direct experience and deep understanding of the stakes involved.  Vice President Joe Biden chaired the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.  National Security Advisor James Jones was the former NATO commander when NATO took command of the International Security Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan.  And Secretary of State Hillary Clinton spent four years on the Senate Armed Service Committee addressing these issues.

That said, reality rather than ideology must dominate the policies that the United States, NATO and other friends pursue if success is to be achieved in the region.  By success, the current security and economic crises confronting Afghanistan and Pakistan must be contained.  That will be a Sisyphean labor even though the conceptual solutions for resolving Pakistan's crises are not difficult to identify.

Regarding Afghanistan, make no mistake.  The West is losing.  The insurgencies and instabilities in Afghanistan cannot be defeated by military force.  Unless or until the civil sector is reformed—meaning creating jobs, establishing the rule of law, fielding a fair and effective judicial and police system, reducing corruption, stemming the narcotics epidemics and instituting better governance—-Afghanistan will remain a failed state.  Tragically, neither NATO nor the European Union has been able to respond to this necessity and the United States has fared no better.

The strategic conclusion is that to bring a measure of stability to Afghanistan, the key is to pacify Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and its North West Frontier Province (NWFP).
To accomplish that, Pakistan must resolve its own economic and security crises.  Unlike Iraq or Afghanistan, given the proper tools, Pakistan can do the job without the need for foreign forces that would be rejected by the Pakistani people who have a solemn view of sovereignty and will not tolerate its infringement.

Tools in this case mean money and assistance.
Pakistan needs an additional $4-5 billion a year above what it is getting from the international community.  The bulk of that money would go into its economy that is in dire shape.  Beyond the balance of payments deficit that has only been temporarily closed by IMF loans, money for food, energy and critically needed infrastructure development is essential.

A little more than an additional billion dollars a year is needed for Pakistan's security forces.  About $200 million would be used to recruit, train and equip an additional 15,000 police and Frontier Corpsman a year.  Unlike Iraq and Afghanistan, Pakistan has the manpower and the infrastructure to accomplish that task.  It lacks the money.  The remainder would buy the equipment the Army desperately needs to fight and win the counterinsurgencies in FATA and NWFP including more helicopters, surveillance and electronic systems, precision guided weapons and force protection gear for its troops, trucks and bases as well as training to maintain this equipment.

But huge roadblocks impede providing Pakistan the tools to let them do the job.  In the midst of the worst economic implosion since the great depression, who can afford the increased funding?  Given Pakistan's history, guarantees are vital to ensuring the proper use of that money with full oversight and transparency.  Unfortunately, the prior government of Pervez Musharraf chose to spend over 2/3 of America's $10 billion in total coalition support funding intended for the Pakistani army on other items without informing anyone–a revelation unlikely to go down well in Washington.

To overcome these obstacles, the new Pakistani government is developing strategies to cope with the economic and security crises and will soon take them on the road.  Those strategies must answer the tough questions that will be raised by skeptical friends who, while understanding the criticality of succeeding in the region, need reassurances that future monies will be worth the investment and well spent.  And only Pakistan can make those guarantees work.

Two recommendations are vital if Pakistan is to succeed.  First, in addition to creating workable economic and security strategies, the Pakistani government must demonstrate that it is capable of executing them.  That means it needs to coordinate far better both its policies and the means to articulate the message.  Second, the West must recognize that Pakistan is the key to success in the region and thus to safeguarding our security in the process.  Unlike global bailouts for the financial systems that total trillions and stimulative packages of about the same level, Pakistan can succeed with a mere fraction of that largesse.  Still, this will be a very tough sell.

To paraphrase Churchill, if we are to succeed,  "give Pakistan the tools and Pakistan can do the job."

 

Wednesday, January 28, 2009

by Harlan Ullman

January 31ST, 2009

 

Harlan Ullman is senior advisor to The Atlantic Council in Washington, DC and to US European Command. He is a frequent visitor to Pakistan.