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ANALYSIS / By Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff, Haaretz Correspondent Any early bets about the results of Iran's presidential elections bordered on stupidity. Israeli intelligence can predict with certainty only the results of election campaigns in the pseudo-democracies of the Arab world, such as Egypt and Syria, in which the ruler will never drop below a threshold of 99 percent of the voters. When it comes to countries or entities in which the process is closer to genuine democracy, there is a greater chance for forecasts to fail. That is what happened under Israel's nose during the Palestinian Authority parliamentary election three and a half years ago, when the intelligence community did not foresee the victory of Hamas (the Shin Bet security service cunningly covered itself in advance with a prediction of "both this and that"). That is probably what happened at the beginning of last week, when Israeli intelligence - like every other pundit in the region - did ...

In a strange twist to this report on the first incident of American/Israeli/International forces enforcing the Hamas weapons embargo, it is claimed that the bombs left "18- holes [craters?] diameters ranging between 160 and 430 meters." The weapons used in the barren Sudanese desert, beyond the reach of the media, must have been huge! The Trinity bomb left a crater 330 meters wide. Even if the translator confused meters for feet, what kind of conventional bombs leave craters of 160 feet or more? Below is a picture of a 70 foot crater left by 38,000 pounds of explosives. Does this incident have anything to do with the arrest warrant for Sudanese President Al-Bashir, since his government recently denounced the US/Israeli raid? There is a lot more to this story. الخرطوم ــ خاص «الشروق»: - Khartoum special «sunrise»: – دمرت الطائرات الأمريكية قافلة شاحنات قيل إنها كانت محملة بالأسلحة ومتجهة إلى الحدود المصرية، للشك فى أنها مهربة إلى سيناء، تمهيدا لادخالها عبر الأنف...

The border crossings between Israel and Gaza have become a central tool in the struggle against Hamas in the years since it took over the Strip. Security circles claim they have solid proof that Hamas is using raw materials and "innocent" products for the creation of weapons. In addition to the security arguments, Israel makes it difficult for goods to enter the Gaza Strip as a means of punishment and as pressure on Hamas every time it disturbs the peace. Recently Israel added food products, such as pasta, and building materials, such as glass, which are needed for repairing the many buildings destroyed during Operation Cast Lead, to the list of prohibited goods. The experience from the war in Lebanon and the territories should have taught the decision makers that collective punishment of the civilian population is not merely not moral, but also harmful. The residents do not turn their anger against Hamas but rather against those who prevent the food from reaching their child...

The Jerusalem Rabbinic Court held expedited divorce proceedings for a 14-year-old girl and her 17-year-old husband this week, after the court ruled the makeshift wedding ceremony the two held did indeed conform to Jewish religious law. The boy had recited the marriage vows in front of friends, who served as witnesses, and even gave the girl a ring. This means the girl is most likely Israel's youngest divorcee, the court said. The boy and girl are both from traditionally religious families in the Jerusalem area. When the boy's parents learned the pair had held a wedding ceremony, they insisted on a "get," a religious divorce, so he could marry in the future. The girl initially refused, insisting that she wanted to live with the boy as his wife, and said she had intended to marry him officially in another three years, once she passed the legal age. She relented only after the groom's parents offered her NIS 10,000. The divorce proceeding was held earlier this week,...

A recent U.S. National Intelligence Council report suggests Egypt has lost its superior status among Arab states, and that leadership in the Middle East is passing to Saudi Arabia despite the kingdom's efforts to avoid it. The study, "Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Jordan: Policies on Regional Issues and Support for U.S. Goals in the Middle East," is based on a workshop held last summer, but was released only in December, after U.S. President Barack Obama was elected and senior intelligence officials in his administration took office. The National Intelligence Council describes itself as a center for midterm and long-term strategic thinking within the U.S. intelligence community. It is subordinate to the Director of National Intelligence, and provides intelligence estimates to the president and senior decision makers on foreign policy issues. While the council is a government agency, the report emphasizes it does not necessarily reflect the administration's foreign policy....

The Anti-Defamation League on Monday blasted Amnesty International as denying Israel the right to defend itself after the human rights organization urged a global freeze on arms sales to Israel. "In calling for an arms embargo of Israel, Amnesty International is doing nothing short of denying Israel the right to self-defense, an internationally accepted right of every sovereign nation," said ADL National Director Abraham H. Foxman in a statement. Amnesty called for the embargo in a report released Monday that claimed more than 20 countries sold Israel weapons and munitions whose use during its offensive in Gaza could constitute war crimes and might pose serious infractions of international law. "Indeed, with this pernicious and biased report, Amnesty International has now become the research arm for and a proponent of the extremist anti-Israel boycott, divestment and sanctions movement," the Jewish-American organization's statement said. "The manner in whic...

The latest International Atomic Energy Agency report was greeted with ennui by the Israeli media, deemed not especially exciting compared to the twists and turns of coalition talks or the tongue-lashing Prime Minister Ehud Olmert gave Defense Ministry official Amos Gilad. But the political and security echelons' attitude to the report, which states that Iran has managed to accumulate a ton of enriched uranium and is heading quickly toward a nuclear bomb, is a different story. The report confirms the assumption, shared for some time by the intelligence services of Israel, the United States and Europe, that Iran is closer to the bomb, with mid-2010 as the likely date it will reach its goal. Iran was a major topic of conversation between Defense Minister Ehud Barak, Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi, and U.S. senators John Kerry and Joe Lieberman on their recent visits to Israel. From Israel's perspective, President Barack Obama is a key player in the Iranian dr...

Gilad Shalit could have spent this weekend at home in Mitzpe Hila. The bitter fact is that he could have been released a very long time ago. The cat was let out of the bag by none other than the prime minister himself. "There is no reason Israel should lose what remains of its national pride," said Ehud Olmert at a cabinet meeting, as he surprisingly toughened Israel's stance in the negotiations. The soldier Shalit, it now appears, is rotting in jail as a service to returning lost pride to the nation. He never signed up for this flawed and perverted task, his parents did not volunteer their son for this, and it's even doubtful whether the majority of Israelis would support such a cruel and futile view. Olmert, and the others faithful to the nation's lost honor, are welcome to sacrifice themselves for their cause, rather than shoulder it on to others. The nation's honor was lost in the Gaza war, fought under Olmert, as the ghastly footage of our soldiers' a...

This time we are not dealing with an intelligence assessment based on shadowy sources, or statements by politicians on the eve of elections, but rather a technical report by United Nations experts, who examined findings in the field and whose credibility is beyond reproach. Inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency found that Iran has crossed the "technological threshold," and has built up one ton of enriched uranium. If the material undergoes further processing at the Natanz enrichment facility, it will be sufficient to produce one nuclear bomb. The new findings heighten the sense of urgency to deal with the Iranian nuclear program while highlighting the failure of previous attempts to stop it through Security Council resolutions and economic sanctions. From Israel's standpoint, the increasing threat requires that it tighten its diplomatic coordination with the new U.S. administration. All the options at Israel's disposal depend on an understanding with ...

In the event of a large-scale future war, the Israel Air Force will not be able to provide the same kind of close aerial support it gave ground troops during the recent operation in the Gaza Strip, military sources said recently. IAF officials said various factors, such as the limited number of aircraft and the enemy's increased capabilities, meant the force would likely not be able to repeat the largely successful model of cooperation with ground forces during Operation Cast Lead, on a broader scale, should the need arise. "Hezbollah and the Syrian army are not Hamas," a senior IAF officer said. "We cannot assume that things will be the same in a bigger war." During Operation Cast Lead the IAF implemented a number of changes that it learned from the Second Lebanon War in 2006. For instance, an air force liaison officer was assigned to every battalion and brigade. Liaisons coordinated evacuation of soldiers and strikes on targets on the ground. Also, every bri...

The Israeli army's chief rabbi has been critcised over a controversial booklet distributed to soldiers before the war on Gaza suggesting that they can ignore the rules of war concerning civilians. > Gaza villages Wiped off the map Another excellent report by Jonathan Miller. Telling the story of destruction and killing in Gaza.

Thousands of Turks gave their prime minister a hero's welcome as he returned from the World Economic Forum in Davos having denounced Israel's attack on the Gaza Strip. Recep Tayyip Erdogan accused Israel of "killing children on the beach" during a discussion on Thursday with Shimon Peres, the Israeli president. The Turkish leader then clashed with the panel's American moderator, who tried to cut him off. As Mr Erdogan quoted the opinions of academics that Israel had become a "raider state", the chairman sought to silence him. Visibly infuriated by this interruption, the prime minister walked off the stage, saying: "I will not come to Davos again". As he left, Mr Erdogan received a congratulatory hug from a beaming Amr Moussa, the secretary-general of the Arab League, who was also on the panel. Mr Erdogan's central complaint was that he received only 12 minutes to speak, compared with the 25 minutes allowed to Mr Peres. He stressed that thi...

This week the death toll in Gaza passed the 1,000 mark, after three weeks of Israeli air and ground attacks. But surprisingly, no one has reported an even more appalling statistic: that there are some 1.5 million injured Palestinians in Gaza. How is is possible that such an astounding figure could have passed the world's media by? The reason apparently is that they have been relying on the highly unreliable statistics provided by official Palestinian sources. It appears that the Palestinian health ministry only records as wounded those Gazans who need to stay in hospital because of the severity of their injuries. That means they only count the more than 4,500 Gazans who have suffered injuries such as severe burns from exploding Israeli phosphorus shells; shrapnel wounds from artillery rounds; broken or lost limbs from aerial bombardment; bullet wounds; physical trauma from falling building debris; and so on. But in fact there is another, far more reasonable standard for assess...

"Oh, God! I have never seen such a terrible scene," cried Kayed Abu Aukal. The emergency doctor could not believe himself seeing the remains of what was days back Shahd, a full-fleshed 4-year-old Palestinian girl. She died when an Israeli shell was fired at the backyard of her home in the Jabalya refugee camp northern Gaza strip, where she was playing. When her parents attempted to rush to the rescue of their kid, who fell to the ground amid a pool of her blood, rains of Israeli bullets kept them a distance. For the next five days Shahd's which was left lying in the open left for dogs to tear out. "The dogs did leave one single part of the poor baby's body intact," said a tearful Abu Aukal. "We have seen heart-breaking scenes over the past 18 days. We picked up children whose bodies were torn or burnt, but nothing like this." For five days Shahd's brother, Matar, and cousin, Mohamed, tried in vain to reach her body. They were fired at by the ...

Summary: Israel is not doing it out of the goodness of its heart, of course. The U.S. and Israel have signed an agreement to prevent Hamas re-arming itself . Egypt would play a large part in closing down smugglers' tunnels going into Gaza. Israel also wants to keep troops in Gaza after the halt, as an occupying force. The IDF is continuing its claim that the invasion is justified; to prove this, it has let reporters see a supposed Hamas launch site . It has yet to co-relate the launch sites with the 86% civilian casualties in Gaza. Complete Article JERUSALEM (Reuters) - Israeli leaders are leaning toward declaring a unilateral halt to their offensive in the Gaza Strip instead of entering into a formal, Egyptian-brokered ceasefire with Hamas, Israeli political sources said on Friday. Such a move could deprive Hamas of political gains from a truce deal that would include the easing of Israel's blockade on the coastal enclave, home to 1.5 million Palestinians. Israeli official...

On Thursday it happened, conclusively - Operation Cast Lead turned insane. Attacking any densely populated city is a serious act at any time, but when Israel's international legitimacy is being ground to dust, such an attack is nothing but madness. Shelling a United Nations facility is something not to be done at any time, but doing it on the day when the UN secretary general is visiting Jerusalem is beyond lunacy. The level of pressure the Israel Defense Forces has been exerting on Gaza may be squeezing Hamas, but it is destroying Israel. Destroying its soul and its image . Destroying it on world television screens, in the living rooms of the international community and most importantly, in Obama's America. Israel is not Russia and Gaza is not Chechnya. Israel cannot deal with its enemies the way belligerent superpowers deal with theirs. Wars must be just and proportional. Without being just, Israel cannot triumph on the battlefield. Without a sound moral foundation any I...

The youngest terrorist in the world Age: 2 months before birth Name Not allowing him the opportunity to Zionist bullet Arabs name Citizenship:He was supposed to be Palestinians ِ Adress: From the mother's womb to the grave These data fetus, who was assassinated by Zionist hatred, we give to all the organs of American and British intelligence and international, so stop searching (the small terrorist was assassinated) Watch with us the pictures after the terrorist assassination With greetings of American democracy and the civilized world who are protecting the world from terrorists

Why does Israel have a right to exist, but Palestine doesn't? This is the question of our time. For 60 years Israelis have been stealing Palestine from Palestinians . There are maps available on the Internet and in Israeli publications showing the shrinkage over time of what was once Palestine into what Palestine is today — a small number of unconnected ghettos or bantustans. Palestine became "the occupied territory" from which Palestinians were ejected and Israeli settlements built for "settlers." Jordan, Syria and Lebanon are full of refugee camps in which Palestinians driven off their lands by Israeli force have been living for decades. Driving people off their land is strictly illegal under international law, but Israel has been getting away with it for decades. Gaza is a concentration camp of 1.5 million Palestinians who were driven from their homes and villages and collected in the Gaza Ghetto. The United Nations Relief and Works Agency was created 6...

A truly remarkable personality. Galloway is a Scottish politician, author and talkshow host noted for his left-wing views, confrontational style, and rhetorical skill. The video of him lambasting the US senate is the best of the lot. The US senate falsely accuses him of taking bribes from Saddam Hussain. In response, Galloway tears apart the senate single handedly by questioning their invasion of Iraq and their subsequent failure to achieve even a semblance of law and order in that country. He also questions the motive behind the invasion and accuses them of taking away the wealth of not just the Iraqi people, but also that of the American taxpayers. He asks them to account for the 8.8 billion dollars of Iraq's wealth that went missing under their watch. He says that he had warned them against invading Iraq but no one took him seriously. Unfortunately for Iraq and the international community at large, the words of anti war activists like Galloway, were never taken seriously and con...