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Imagining a Remapped Middle East

How 5 Countries Could Become 14

Slowly, the map of the Middle East could be redrawn. An analysis by Robin Wright. Related Article »
SPILLOVER TO IRAQ
In the simplest of several possibilities,
northern Kurds join Syrian Kurds. Many
central areas, dominated by Sunnis, join
Syria’s Sunnis. And the south becomes
Shiitestan. It’s not likely to be so clean.
In a more powerful twist, all or part of South Yemen could
then become part of Saudi Arabia. Nearly all Saudi commerce
is via sea, and direct access to the Arabian Sea would
diminish dependence on the Persian Gulf — and fears of
Iran’s ability to cut off the Strait of Hormuz.

YEMEN SPLITS
The poorest Arab country
could break (again) into two
pieces following a potential
referendum in South
Yemen on independence.
LIBYA UNGLUED
As a result of powerful
tribal and regional rivalries,
Libya could break into its two
historic parts — Tripolitania
and Cyrenaica — and
possibly a third Fezzan state
in the southwest.
PRE-MONARCHY
SAUDI ARABIA
Long term, Saudi
Arabia faces its
own (suppressed)
internal divisions that
could surface as power
shifts to the next
generation of princes.
The kingdom’s unity is
further threatened by
tribal differences, the
Sunni-Shiite divide and
economic challenges. It
could break into the five
regions that preceeded
the modern state.
Possible city-states
3. The Sunni heartlandsecedes and then may combine with provinces in Iraq to form Sunnistan.
2. A Syrian Kurdistancould break off and eventually merge with the Kurds of Iraq.
1. Alawites, a minority that has controlled Syria for decades, dominate a coastal corridor.
SYRIA: THE TRIGGER?
Sectarian and ethnic rivalries could break it into at least three pieces:
LIBYA
YEMEN
SAUDI ARABIA
Sana
Aden
Sabha
Mecca
Jeddah
Benghazi
MISURATA
Tripoli
Ad Dammam
Riyadh
BAGHDAD
Erbil
SHIITESTAN
TRIPOLITANIA
FEZZAN
CYRENAICA
WESTERN
ARABIA
SOUTH
YEMEN
NORTH
YEMEN
SOUTH ARABIA
EASTERN
ARABIA
WAHHABISTAN
NORTH ARABIA
ALAWITESTAN
SUNNISTAN
KURDISTAN
MEDITERRANEAN SEA
ARABIAN
SEA
PERSIAN
GULF
STRAIT OF HORMUZ
JABAL AL-DRUZE
EGYPT
IRAN
IRAQ
SYRIA


THE map of the modern Middle East, a political and economic pivot in the international order, is in tatters. Syria’s ruinous war is the turning point. But the centrifugal forces of rival beliefs, tribes and ethnicities — empowered by unintended consequences of the Arab Spring — are also pulling apart a region defined by European colonial powers a century ago and defended by Arab autocrats ever since.
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A different map would be a strategic game changer for just about everybody, potentially reconfiguring alliances, security challenges, trade and energy flows for much of the world, too.
Syria’s prime location and muscle make it the strategic center of the Middle East. But it is a complex country, rich in religious and ethnic variety, and therefore fragile. After independence, Syria reeled from more than a half-dozen coups between 1949 and 1970, when the Assad dynasty seized full control. Now, after 30 months of bloodletting, diversity has turned deadly, killing both people and country. Syria has crumbled into three identifiable regions, each with its own flag and security forces. A different future is taking shape: a narrow statelet along a corridor from the south through Damascus, Homs and Hama to the northern Mediterranean coast controlled by the Assads’ minority Alawite sect. In the north, a small Kurdistan, largely autonomous since mid-2012. The biggest chunk is the Sunni-dominated heartland.
Syria’s unraveling would set precedents for the region, beginning next door. Until now, Iraq resisted falling apart because of foreign pressure, regional fear of going it alone and oil wealth that bought loyalty, at least on paper. But Syria is now sucking Iraq into its maelstrom.
The battlefields are merging,” the United Nations envoy Martin Kobler told the Security Council in July. “Iraq is the fault line between the Shia and the Sunni world and everything which happens in Syria, of course, has repercussions on the political landscape in Iraq.”
Over time, Iraq’s Sunni minority — notably in western Anbar Province, site of anti-government protests — may feel more commonality with eastern Syria’s Sunni majority. Tribal ties and smuggling span the border. Together, they could form a de facto or formal Sunnistan. Iraq’s south would effectively become Shiitestan, although separation is not likely to be that neat.
The dominant political parties in the two Kurdish regions of Syria and Iraq have longstanding differences, but when the border opened in August, more than 50,000 Syrian Kurds fled to Iraqi Kurdistan, creating new cross-border communities. Massoud Barzani, president of Iraqi Kurdistan, has also announced plans for the first summit meeting of 600 Kurds from some 40 parties in Iraq, Syria, Turkey and Iran this fall.
“We feel that conditions are now appropriate,” said Kamal Kirkuki, the former speaker of Iraq’s Kurdish Parliament, about trying to mobilize disparate Kurds to discuss their future.
Outsiders have long gamed the Middle East: What if the Ottoman Empire hadn’t been divvied up by outsiders after World War I? Or the map reflected geographic realities or identities? Reconfigured maps infuriated Arabs who suspected foreign plots to divide and weaken them all over again.
I had never been a map gamer. I lived in Lebanon during the 15-year civil war and thought it could survive splits among 18 sects. I also didn’t think Iraq would splinter during its nastiest fighting in 2006-7. But twin triggers changed my thinking.
The Arab Spring was the kindling. Arabs not only wanted to oust dictators, they wanted power decentralized to reflect local identity or rights to resources. Syria then set the match to itself and conventional wisdom about geography.
New borders may be drawn in disparate, and potentially chaotic, ways. Countries could unravel through phases of federation, soft partition or autonomy, ending in geographic divorce.
Libya’s uprising was partly against the rule of Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi. But it also reflected Benghazi’s quest to separate from domineering Tripoli. Tribes differ. Tripolitanians look to the Maghreb, or western Islamic world, while Cyrenaicans look to the Mashriq, or eastern Islamic world. Plus, the capital hogs oil revenues, even though the east supplies 80 percent of it.
So Libya could devolve into two or even three pieces. The Cyrenaica National Council in eastern Libya declared autonomy in June. Southern Fezzan also has separate tribal and geographic identities. More Sahelian than North African in culture, tribes and identity, it could split off too.
Robin Wright is the author of “Rock the Casbah: Rage and Rebellion Across the Islamic World” and a distinguished scholar at the United States Institute of Peace and the Wilson Center.

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